This was a difficult E3 to gauge. Depending on which angle that you viewed the show from, it ranged from a disaster to somewhat hopeful for the next nine months. I think that the truth is somewhere in between those two extremes.

Microsoft and Sony continued to remain close to the vest with their Gen4 plans, hoping to wring another 12-16 months out of aging hardware with saturated user bases. Nintendo showed that it learned nothing from last year’s E3 problems with the Wii U, highlighted by splintered press events that really didn’t say a whole lot about its next hardware platform - which is likely less than six months before launch. Sony failed to demonstrate anything Vita-related that would lead anyone to believe that brighter times are ahead for the struggling handheld in the near-term.

While the hardware side of the business really didn’t do much to restore confidence, there was some hope on the software side. Halo 4 and Call of Duty: Black Ops II are set to do battle in what should be a fairly successful month of November, plus the first quarter of 2013 looks packed with strong titles as well. Most of the software announcements were safe, with only a handful of new IPs mixed in with a swarm of sequels. That’s not a surprise, given the expected releases of new hardware next year.

What struck me the most about E3 this year was the proliferation of the mobile gaming sector. New controllers for smartphones and tablets will remove a major barrier for more precise controls in these games and make them closer to console experiences than ever before. Major publishers all had significant stakes in mobile development from what I saw. While core gaming consumers continue to object to the idea that mobile gaming is gaining market share and is a force to be considered moving forward, the video game industry understands that a paradigm shift is underway for many consumers and adaptation to take advantage of such a shift is vital to continued success.

If I had to grade each platform’s sales success potential over the next nine months, this is how I’d score them:

Mobile (iOS/Android smartphone/tablet):

Most of the major publisher booths at E3 had some sort of mobile gaming presence to see, and there was no shortage of titles on the way to both iOS and Android smartphone and tablet devices. Electronic Arts, 2K Games, and Konami are three that spring to mind immediately, and Activision and Square-Enix also have significant mobile plans in the next year.

Power A and Nyko unveiled portable controllers for smartphones and tablets that worked very well and will be positioned with affordable price points later this year to bring a more authentic console/handheld experience to players looking to get away from pure touchscreens. Growth in this market will continue to be explosive. Grade: A

Microsoft Xbox 360:

Despite fears that the theme of E3 for Microsoft would be more towards non-gaming entertainment, strong third-party support continues to make the Xbox 360 the platform to beat for the next nine months. While sales saturation will keep Xbox 360 hardware sales down year over year, the software lineup looks solid for the balance of 2012 (anchored by Halo 4 and Call of Duty: Black Ops II) and the run should continue through at least March of 2013.

Xbox LIVE Arcade games look strong as well, and the option to drop price sometime in 2012 helps raise the sales potential at least somewhat. The period of strongest growth is over for the Xbox 360, but that doesn’t mean the console won’t continue to be at the top of the hardware sales charts for most of the rest of this year. Grade: B+

Sony PlayStation 3:

To Sony’s credit, the company continues to try and deliver quality first-party experiences. God of War: Ascension and PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale attracted the most attention in Sony’s booth at E3, and those are the titles with the strongest potential for the next nine months. Sony focused primarily on games during this E3, and that resonated with core gaming consumers.

One wild card to consider, albeit relatively minor, is that baseball fans may have to switch to the PlayStation 3 next year if they want a Major League Baseball game since Take-Two likely isn’t going to renew its license agreement for next year. It won’t drive millions of unit sales, but it could fuel a nice bump in February/March of 2013. The PlayStation 3 won’t “beat” the Xbox 360, but sales will be competitive. Grade: B

Nintendo 3DS:

This is a tough one to call. There were a few game announcements that stirred crowds, but I’m not entirely convinced that Nintendo really hit home with many of those. Yes, there are two new Mario games coming this year - one being the first-ever portable Paper Mario. Yes, Kingdom Hearts 3D is coming. Will these be system sellers? The 3DS, as well as the Vita, is feeling the pressure from the expansion of the mobile gaming market, and I don’t know that I can firmly predict that Nintendo will potentially have another Q4 like it did last year.

Another price drop isn’t likely, so perhaps Nintendo will roll out a holiday bundle to stimulate sales. I’ll give them a somewhat generous grade for potential and see how things bear out. Grade: B-

Sony PlayStation Vita:

I thought for sure that Sony would recognize that the Vita is struggling. It’s early, yes, but sales are nowhere near on track for the bold projections of 10 million units sold this fiscal year. Instead of focusing time on the Vita and injecting confidence into consumers that the platform has a bright future and is worth the $250+ investment, Sony treated Vita more like an afterthought. The only “deal” Sony mentioned was the Assassin’s Creed III bundle, which won’t be available for another four months. Game announcements were tame and relatively few, and alarmingly empty Vita demo stations in Sony’s booth on the E3 show floor were a sign that interest just isn’t there.

Unless Sony comes up with a big announcement in the next few months - price-related or software-related - the next nine months are going to be painful to watch for Vita sales as an observer. Grade: D

Nintendo Wii U:

What a mess. For the second year in a row, information changed for the Wii U on a daily basis at E3. Support for multiple Wii U GamePads went from the positive “We will support” line from Reggie Fils-Aime at Nintendo’s press event to “support will come well after launch” not long after that. In addition, lack of online play for Pikmin 3 and disappointing comments from Satoru Iwata about Nintendo’s inability to compete with Xbox LIVE and the Sony Entertainment Network aren’t positive things for Wii U. Nintendo Land doesn’t appear to have the same kind of wide-ranging demographic as Wii Sports did for a pack-in, and many of the other games unveiled for Wii U are on other platforms and won’t really be positioned as killer apps.

The two biggest variables in determining the potential success of the Wii U still remain unclear. Price could be anywhere from $250 to $350 at this point, and the launch date is still a nebulous “Holiday 2012”. While I’m bearish on the platform at this point, it’s not feasible to give it a grade for sales potential until more details are in place. Grade: Incomplete

Overall, despite the decent slate of games on display and despite the impending launch of a new Nintendo hardware platform, I think that sales will continue to be down collectively versus 2011. Even if Wii U sells better than I think it will, that’s likely only going to be for 6-8 weeks, which won’t be enough to counteract lower hardware sales for the other platforms. It’s symptomatic of the end of the current console generation to see hardware sales begin to stagnate and/or fall, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that these numbers will trend lower. Physical software (packaged goods) will also trend lower. We don’t have as dynamic a release schedule in 2012 as we did last year, so I expect sales to be down. Q1 2013 could be different, especially after the awful January and February that we had this year, but Q3/Q4 2012 won’t be so lucky.

Is the console video game industry in trouble? It’s hard to say. Perhaps the downward trend turns around when Gen4 really gets going in 18 months. It won’t be an automatic recovery, though. Alternate viable platforms for gaming exist now, and it’s going to be a challenge for Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony to convince consumers to spend $300+ more on hardware that may or may not be necessary as mobile and PC gaming popularity rises. Based on some conversations that I had during E3, confidence is mixed at best that console gaming turns things around. It definitely won’t happen in the next nine months, in spite of some truly great games taking center stage at E3. We’ll have to see what happens after that.